Pizzeria Business Plan Template: Free Excel Forecast
A pizzeria business plan comes down to three numbers: the total funding required, the lowest bank balance while trade builds up, and the break-even point in pizzas a day. Enter your assumptions below. The forecast runs month by month over three years, and you can download the same plan as an Excel file, formulas included, to take to your bank or Start Up Loans adviser.
Start-up costs
Or the price of the van for a mobile business.
Left in the bank on opening day.
Funding
The rest is borrowed.
A blend: Start Up Loans are fixed at 7.5%, bank or asset finance often costs more.
Trading
While the neighbourhood finds you.
Prices and variable costs
Hot takeaway food is standard-rated at 20%. Enter 0 only if you’ll stay under the £90,000 VAT threshold.
Monthly overheads
Total funding required
£100,000
of which £70,000 borrowed
Lowest bank balance
£6,847
in month 3
Break-even
47.5 pizzas/day
including the £1,419 monthly repayment
- Year 1Sales ex VAT £180,600 · EBITDA £31,002
- Profit £8,831
- Year 2Sales ex VAT £221,760 · EBITDA £58,579
- Profit £37,392
- Year 3Sales ex VAT £232,848 · EBITDA £66,008
- Profit £45,887
- Bank balance at the end of year 3
- £116,993
What’s in the Excel template
| Sheet | Contents |
|---|---|
| 3-year summary | Sales, gross profit, EBITDA, profit and bank balance year by year, plus the lowest balance and break-even |
| Assumptions | All your inputs in blue, editable: everything else recalculates |
| Monthly cash flow | 36 months: ramp-up, costs, loan (interest and capital), depreciation, bank balance |
The file opens in Excel, LibreOffice and Google Sheets. The formulas are visible and editable, so your bank manager or accountant can check every line, and they will.
The assumptions that make or break the forecast
- Pizzas per day. This one line drives everything else, and it’s the one founders overestimate most. Build it up from your oven’s capacity at peak and your opening hours, then take 40–60% of that ceiling. Never work backwards from the income you need.
- Ramp-up. Nobody opens at full speed. Starting at 50% and reaching 100% in three to six months is realistic, and those are the months when your bank balance hits its low point.
- Prices without the VAT. Hot takeaway food is standard-rated, so a £14 average spend is £11.67 in the forecast. Putting VAT-inclusive prices in the sales line overstates every month by a sixth.
- Food cost. 25–30% of sales ex VAT for a well-run pizzeria. Above 32%, look at your portion sizes or your prices before you touch the forecast.
- Your own pay. A plan with the owner on zero won’t convince a lender: they know you have to live. Staff wages go in with employer’s National Insurance and pension, with the National Living Wage as the floor.
What a UK lender will look at
Three things, in this order: how much of your own money goes in (typically 20–30% of the total for a shop, sometimes 10–20% for a van), whether EBITDA comfortably covers the loan repayments, and whether the first-year sales figure is believable. Break-even at 35 pizzas a day when you forecast 60 is reassuring; break-even at 55 for 60 forecast is a worry, and rightly so.
If you’re applying for a Start Up Loan (British Business Bank, up to £25,000 per founder at a fixed 7.5% over 1–5 years), a business plan and a cash flow forecast are part of the application. High-street banks usually want a personal guarantee from a new limited company’s directors, and asset finance on the oven and fridges adds its own monthly payment: add it to the loan, or to your overheads.
The full method and the mistakes to avoid: the pizzeria business plan guide. To cost each pizza precisely: the pizza food cost calculator. And if you’re starting with a van: the pizza van budget calculator.