Pizzeria business plan template: free Excel projection
A pizzeria business plan comes down to three numbers: the total funding required, the lowest bank balance while sales build up, and the break-even point in pizzas a day. Enter your assumptions below. The projection runs month by month over three years, all before sales tax, and you can download it as an Excel file, formulas included, to take to your bank or SBA lender.
Startup costs
Or the price of the truck for a mobile business.
Left in the bank on opening day.
Funding
The rest is borrowed.
Use the rate in your term sheet; SBA microloans generally run 8% to 13%.
Sales volume
While the neighborhood finds you.
Prices and variable costs
Before sales tax and tips.
Boxes, card fees around 3%, app commission on the app share.
Monthly overhead
Total funding required
$174,000
of which $129,000 borrowed
Lowest bank balance
$17,250
in month 2
Break-even
74.4 pizzas/day
including the $2,175 monthly loan payment
- Year 1Sales $591,250 · EBITDA $90,400
- Profit $57,477
- Year 2Sales $726,000 · EBITDA $176,640
- Profit $145,169
- Year 3Sales $762,300 · EBITDA $199,872
- Profit $170,014
- Bank balance at the end of year 3
- $418,611
What’s in the Excel template
| Sheet | Contents |
|---|---|
| 3-year summary | Sales, gross profit, EBITDA, profit and bank balance year by year, plus the lowest balance and break-even |
| Assumptions | All your inputs in blue, editable: everything else recalculates |
| Monthly cash flow | 36 months: ramp-up, costs, loan interest and principal, depreciation, bank balance |
The file opens in Excel, LibreOffice and Google Sheets. The formulas are visible and editable, so your lender or accountant can check every line, and they will.
The assumptions that make or break the projection
- Pizzas per day. This line drives everything else, and it’s the one founders overestimate most. Build it from your oven’s capacity at the Friday peak and your hours, then take 40% to 60% of that ceiling. Never work backward from the income you need.
- Ramp-up. Nobody opens at full speed. Starting at 50% and reaching 100% in three to six months is realistic, and those months are when your bank balance hits its low point.
- Prices before sales tax. US menu prices exclude sales tax, which you collect on top and pass on to the state. Put pre-tax tickets in the sales line, and leave tips out too.
- Food cost. 25% to 30% of sales for a well-run pizzeria. Above 32%, look at portions or prices before you touch the projection.
- App commission. If a third of your orders come through DoorDash or Uber Eats at 25%, that alone adds about eight points to “other variable costs.” Model it honestly.
- Your own pay. A plan with the owner at zero won’t convince a lender. Payroll goes in with employer payroll taxes, at or above your state and city minimum wage.
What a US lender will look at
Three things, in this order: how much of your own money goes in, whether EBITDA comfortably covers the loan payments, and whether the first-year sales figure is believable. Break-even at 74 pizzas a day when you project 100 is reassuring; break-even at 95 for 100 projected is a worry, and rightly so.
Many pizzeria founders borrow through the SBA. SBA microloans go up to $50,000, about $13,000 on average, over up to seven years, at rates that generally run 8% to 13%, through nonprofit community lenders. SBA 7(a) loans go up to $5 million through banks and other approved lenders. Either way, the lender makes the credit decision, and a business plan with a cash flow projection is the first thing they will ask for.
The full method and the mistakes to avoid: the pizzeria business plan guide. To cost each pie precisely: the food cost calculator. Starting with a truck: the pizza truck budget calculator.